The Waiting

by | Jul 16, 2019 | Daily Note

The bearish case has been made on this note recently with S&P bullish sentiment reaching an extreme level again at 90%.  Throw in the daily and weekly DeMark Sequential Countdown 13's which is a rare occurrence both time periods triggering at the same time.  Q2 earnings are starting off without many surprises this week so far.  People say expectations are low and for some companies I'd agree (JB Hunt is a notable positive surprise reaction) but with the markets hitting all time highs, traders have raised the bar on many of the mega cap names.  Then there's the Fed.  The "data dependent" Fed will likely cut rates by 25bps which won't do much in the grand scheme of things after sifting through better recent economic reports including jobs, CPI, PPI,  ISM, Empire Manufacturing and today's blow out retail sales report while the markets are at all time highs up 20%+ for the year!  They must be weighing Trump's tweets targeted at them more than actual data or maybe Trump is playing some sort of 3D chess knowing the markets are at all time highs, the econ data has been better so he's bringing back into the narrative adding more tariffs with China so the market will drop. And then Fed Chairman Powell just spoke in Europe throwing out some  dovish comments lifting up the market back to before Trump's morning tariff threat.   I've had many clients say they are totally confused by everything going on and by this market.   When that happens, take down risk.  

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