The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead August 26, 2023

Aug 26, 2023

Thomas Thornton

TOP EVENTS AND CATALYSTS

The week ahead will focus on a heavy amount of economic data, including the US JOLTs report for July Tuesday, the CPIs from Spain and Germany for August Wednesday, China’s NBS PMIs for August Wednesday, the Eurozone CPI for August Thursday, the US PCE for July Thursday (recall this is the data point Powell said yesterday he’s watching), the US jobs report for August, and the US manufacturing ISM for August on Friday. The following week will be highlighted with the US CPI.

In addition, investors will have their eyes on a few earnings reports, including Tuesday premarket: BBY, NIO, SJM; Tuesday postmarket: HPE, HPQ, PVH; Wednesday premarket: CHWY, CRM, CRWD, OKTA, VEEV, VSCO; Thursday premarket: ASO, CIEN, CPB, DG, HRL, OLLI, SIG; and Thursday postmarket: AVGO, DELL, LULU, MDB, VMW.

The setup overall in the markets remains concerning for more downside risk. Equity bullish sentiment has remained above the 50% midpoint level, which is positive; however, there are pending downside DeMark Sequential Countdowns in progress. Equity indexes are at critical support levels. September seasonality is historically weak. This week’s economic data will be a test for the bond market; as mentioned on the late note yesterday, some bond market capitulation could be ahead if rates make another high. The US Dollar continues higher vs. the Euro and Yen. This is also a concern from a macro standpoint.

Charts I am watching

The 2023 Leaders Magnificent 7 basket is down 7% from July highs.

The S&P 493 ex the Magnificent 7 is at important support that did make a new low on Friday before bouncing late in the session.

SPY has the DeMark Sequential pending on day 5 of 13. Keep an eye on 436.50 as the first support for a close under to confirm more downside risk.

QQQ with DeMark Sequential is in progress on the downside on day 5 of 13.

IWM Russell 2000 also has a downside Sequential Countdown in progress. This has surpassed the 0.38% first Relative Retracement level.

Dow Jones Industrial Average is at important support with potential for new downside Sequential Countdown with a little more downside action.

DXY Index US Dollar Index hit a new high on Friday with the Sequential on day 11 of 13.

EURUSD made a new recent low with Sequential on day 9 of 13.

USDJPY Japanese Yen continues to weaken with a new closing low in wave 5

US economic data for the week – busy week!

KEY MARKET SENTIMENT

Equity bullish sentiment

Bond bullish sentiment

Currency bullish sentiment with US Dollar bullish sentiment firmly in the extreme zone. As a reminder, it was in the extreme zone for most of 2022.

Commodity bullish sentiment mixed action on Friday with continued weakness with Gold

EARNINGS, CONFERENCES, AND ECONOMIC REPORTS

Monday 28-Aug:
- Corporate:
  - Earnings:
    - Pre-open: BZUN
    - Post-close: AFYA, FINV, HEI, JOAN, LFVN, NOAH, TEDU, YQ
  - Brokerage Conference:
    - European Society of Cardiology Congress
    - Stifel Tech Executive Summit
  - PDUFA: Reblozyl
- Economic
  - US: Dallas Fed Index
  - Europe: Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, M3 Money Supply y/y, Retail sales y/y
  - Asia: Unemployment Rate
Tuesday 29-Aug:
- Corporate:
  - Earnings:
    - Pre-open: AMWD, BBY, BIG, BZ, CAN, CHS, CNF, CTLT, DCI, MBUU, PDD, SCVL, TIGR, XYF
    - Post-close: AMBA, BOX, HPE, HPQ, LIZI, LX, NCNO, PVH, YY
  - Analyst/Investor Events: LRN
  - Brokerage Conference:
    - UN ESCAP: 3rd International Forum on Low-Carbon Cities
    - Jefferies Semiconductors, IT Hardware & Communications Infrastructure Summit
    - Automotive Lighting Technologies & Designs Europe Conference
    - Automotive Visual Displays & HMI Conference
  - PDUFA: OTLK (LYTENAVA)
- Economic
  - US: FHFA House Price Index, JOLTS, Consumer Confidence, S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 20-City COMP (m/m, y/y), API Crude Inventories
  - Europe: Final GDP y/y, Retail Sales y/y, Trade Balance, GfK Consumer Confidence, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday 30-Aug:
- Corporate:
  - Earnings:
    - Pre-open: BF.B, CONN, FANH, GOTU, HOV, HTOO, LANV, MCFT, PDCO, REX, VRA
    - Post-close: CHWY, COO, CRM, CRWD, FEAM, FIVE, GEF, OKTA, PAHC, PSTG, VEEV, VSCO
  - Analyst/Investor Events: LRN
  - Brokerage Conference:
    - Jefferies Semiconductors, IT Hardware & Communications Infrastructure Summit
    - Automotive Lighting Technologies & Designs Europe Conference
    - Automotive Visual Displays & HMI Conference
    - Disruptive Technology for Defense Transformation USA Summit
    - Deutsche Bank Technology Conference
    - Morgan Stanley Asia Tech Conference
    - UN: APAC Climate Change Adaptation Forum
- Economic
  - US: MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications, ADP Employment Report, GDP Chain Price (first revision), GDP (first revision), Wholesale Inventories, Pending Home Sales, DOE Crude Inventories
  - Europe: PPI y/y, Nationwide House Price Index y/y, Preliminary CPI y/y, KOF Leading Indicator, Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, BoE Mortgage Approvals, M4 MoneySupply m/m, Economic Sentiment Indicator, CPI y/y, PPI m/m, Final GDP y/y
  - Asia: Industrial Production m/m, Industrial Production m/m (preliminary), Retail Sales y/y, Retail Sales m/m, Non Manufacturing PMI y/y, official Manufacturing PMI y/y
Thursday 31-Aug:
- Corporate:
  - Earnings:
    - Pre-open: ALLT, ASO, BNR, CAL, CD, CIEN, CPB, DG, DLTH, FLWS, GCO, GMS, HRL, JG, JILL, KNOP, KRKR, LE, LFCR, MOMO, OLLI, PSNY, SIG, TITN
    - Post-close: ABCM, AMRK, ARCE, AVGO, DELL, ESTC, HCP, IOT, LULU, MDB, NTNX, NX, OXM, PD, S, SOL, TLYS
  - Brokerage Conference:
    - Automotive Lighting Technologies & Designs Europe Conference
    - Automotive Visual Displays & HMI Conference
    - Disruptive Technology for Defense Transformation USA Summit
    - Deutsche Bank Technology Conference
    - Morgan Stanley Asia Tech Conference
    - UN: APAC Climate Change Adaptation Forum
    - Axis India Autos & EVs Conference
- Economic
  - US: Challenger Job Cuts, Core PCE, PCE Deflator, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Personal Spending, Personal Income, Chicago PMI, and EIA Natural Gas Inventories
  - Canada: Current Account
  - Europe: Retail Sales y/y, Unemployment Rate, Retail sales y/y, Consumer Goods Spending m/m, PPI m/m, Preliminary CPI y/y, Final GDP q/q, Final GDP y/y, Unemployment rate, Flash CPI y/y, Preliminary GDP (second) y/y, Manufacturing PMI
  - Asia: Housing Starts y/y, MOF Corporate Survey Capex, Final Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance
Friday 01-Sep:
- Corporate:
  - Earnings:
    - Pre-open: DDL
  - Brokerage Conference:
    - UN: APAC Climate Change Adaptation Forum
    - Axis India Autos & EVs Conference
- Economic
  - US: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Average Hourly Earnings, Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, Manufacturing Payrolls, and ISM Manufacturing Index
  - Canada: GDP Chain Price, GDP, GDP m/m,
  - Europe: CPI y/y, Manufacturing PMI, SVME PMI, Retail Sales, PPI y/y, GDP y/y

Thanks to Street Account, Vital Knowledge, and Bloomberg as valued sources.