Highlights and themes
- Late in the week, the Yen started to strengthen again (a worry for macro markets/Yen carry trade unwinds), while the US Dollar index bounced small due to some new stalling/weakness with other crosses—notably the Pound and Euro.
- Crypto was down on the week with continued downside DeMark Sequential Countdowns in progress.
- With the Yen in downside wave 3 and current DeMark exhaustion signals in play, I always have a little pause regarding the indicators’ effectiveness since wave 3 isn’t the final wave 5, which tends to be more effective with DeMark indicator exhaustion.
- Dollar index relative strength could be more macro risk-off positioning.
Comments on charts. If you have questions or would like more context, please email.
Currency Sentiment Overview
Currency sentiment highlights
US Dollar Indexes
DXY US Dollar Index daily
Bloomberg US Dollar Index daily recently bounced after buy Setup 9 and dropped back down. Risk with Sequential pending
Bloomberg US Dollar Index weekly with recent DeMark Sequential 13 and Setup 9. For the most part this has been moving sideways for 18 months.
US Dollar bullish sentiment with a choppy bounce pattern.
US Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Major USD Crosses
EURUSD Euro / US Dollar stalling after recent sell Setup 9. Watch if there is a continuation with Sequential Countdown.
Euro bullish sentiment stalling in elevated zone
Euro Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
GBPUSD British Pound Sterling / US Dollar after sell Setup 9 stalling (despite pending Sequential Countdown)
British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment stalling in elevated zone
British Pound Sterling Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. New Sequential sell Countdown 13 with weekly time frame.
AUDUSD Australian Dollar / US Dollar reversal with recent sell Setup 9 (despite the pending Sequential)
Australian Dollar bullish sentiment fading with lower high
Australian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDCAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar reversal
Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment stalling
Canadian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDCHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc with new Sequential buy Countdown 13’s . Two Setup 9’s so there will be a potential secondary Sequential.
Swiss Franc bullish sentiment in elevated zone
Swiss Franc Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators.
USDJPY Japanese Yen daily with new Combo 13 in wave 3. Wave 3’s are not my ideal waves to lean into 13’s. Risk remains Yen strength to carry trade unwind.
Japanese Yen bullish sentiment remains in the elevated zone
Yen Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Dangerous price action.
Crypto
Bitcoin daily remains in downside wave 5 with Sequential still in progress.
Bitcoin bullish sentiment shows a series of lower highs
Ethereum remains in downside wave 5 with a Sequential in progress
Three major Yen crosses
The lower high corrective wave 2 of 5 bounces are clear. Wave 3
EURJPY Euro / Japanese Yen bounced with a lower high wave 2 of 5.
GBPJPY British Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen bounced with a lower high wave 2 of 5.
AUDJPY Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen bounced with a lower high wave 2 of 5.
US Dollar vs Emerging Markets
USDBRL US Dollar / Brazilian Real with Sequential pending and bounce could be ending
USDMXN US Dollar / Mexican Peso with recent DeMark Sequential and Combo 13’s but no turn yet
Mexican Peso bullish sentiment with a multi year low
Mexican Peso Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDZAR US Dollar / South African Rand risk lower
USDCNH US Dollar / Chinese Offshore Renminbi (Yuan). New Sequential and Combo 13’s
DeMark Sequential Basics from Bloomberg
Detailed Commitment of Traders explanation
